COMPLETE SCHOOL PROJECT TOPICS & MATERIALS :
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CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
- Background to the Study
Rice (Oryza sativa) is a cereal which has become a staple food of considerable importance in many African Countries, where its consumption among urban and rural poor households has increased considerably (Wudil et al., 2015). Population growth and urbanization are the principal factors driving increased rice production in Nigeria (Onu et al 2015).There are about twenty-three species of rice out of which only two species have been known for their commercial cultivation. These two species are Oryza sativa (Asian rice) and Oryza glaberrima (African rice). The dominant rice species is Oryza sativa, which is believed to have origin in South-East Asia. Today, it is cultivated in Asia, Africa, Europe, Oceania and the Americas. In Africa, Oryza sativa has now almost fully replaced the local species Oryza glaberrima, which was grown as a main staple crop in Western Africa earlier. The “red” or “black” rice also has some popularity in the Western countries where they are sold as specialties. Some wild rice varieties are regarded as important weeds in the cultivation of Oryza sativa and some of them are also used in the breeding programs for O. sativa.’
Rice yields are however low even by West African standards (Binuomote et al., 2012). Despite the considerable potential for rice production expansion in all these production ecologies namely: plateau, rained plains, irrigated plains, lowlands and mangrove. The rice sector has not been able to satisfy the demand of rice consumers. About 70 percent of the annual rice demand is met by local rice producers. The deficit has to be imported to the extent that Nigeria has become the largest importer of rice in Africa (FAO, 2012) and second in the world (Cardoni and Angelucci, 2013). To bridge the demand- supply gap, milled rice worth about ₦512million imported into the country in 2016 which is projected to about 3,654 metric tons (FAO, 2016). The growing concern about the foreign currency drains resulting from rice import has influenced the decision of the Nigeria government to give high priority to rice production in the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (Tiamiyu, 2014).
Although the rice paddy rose from 1.9 million metric tons in the 1980 to 6 million metric tons in 2016, (FAO, 2016) production has not kept pace with demand. There is considerable potential for extending and intensifying rice production in the five rice-growing ecosystems found in Nigeria: – plateau, rained plains, irrigated plains, lowlands and mangrove (FAO, 2017). The land area that could be cultivated is roughly 1.3million hectares. Self-sufficiency in rice production has eluded Nigeria for a long time despite over many years of efforts by the Government of Nigeria towards its realization (Umeh and Atarboh, 2007).
Emodi and Dimelu (2011) observed that, “there will be an encouragement of the local producers of rice when a ban is put in place on the importation of rice in Nigeria. Perhaps adequate steps need to be taken by the government to ban the importation of rice and at the same time create an avenue for the foreign investors such that rice can be produced locally”. To respond to the prevailing rice production and consumption deficit situation in Nigeria, successive governments intervened in the rice sector by increasing tariffs so that local production could be encouraged (Wudil et al., 2015).
Past policies did not help local rice producers secure a significant market share and imports have increase rapidly since the lifting of the ban and in spite of successive increases in the import tariff from 50% to 100%. Imported rice represents more than 20% of agricultural imports and half of the total rice consumption. Nigeria has thus become a second major rice importer with about 2,600 metric tons, third only to European union with about 1,900 metric tons over the period 1980-2016,(USDA 2016). While China’s unprecedented growth in rice in 2017 came as a surprise with about 5500 metric tons up to date. Experts claim that by the year 2040 an additional rice supply of no less than 112 million tons will be required to meet the growing global demand, especially if countries from Africa fail to address their own growing populations and subsequently greater food resource requirements. Beyond the large volume involved, the Nigerian rice market is even more attractive than other West African markets, because Nigeria imports high-value (parboiled) rice rather than rice of lower quality typically imported into the other countries of the sub-region. West Africa Rice Development Association (WARDA) in collaboration with the Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research (NISER) suggest a strategy to revitalize the rice sector in Nigeria (WARDA, 2003).
Global rice production in 2017 is forecast at 483.8 million tons (milled basis), up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast but 3.3 million tons below the 2016 record, (FAO 2016). At a record 161.86 million hectares, global harvested area in 2017 is up 1.1 million hectares from a year earlier (FAO 2017). USDA raised its 2017 crop forecasts for four countries, all in Africa. The largest upward revision was for Nigeria, the largest rice-producing country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria’s 2017 crop forecast was raised 0.9 million tons to 3.65 million tons due to a much larger area forecast. At 3.2 million hectares, Nigeria’s rice area is up 620,000 hectares from the previous forecast and unchanged from the year earlier record, (USDA 2017). USDA revised Nigeria’s area, yield, and productions estimates from 2012 to 2017 largely based on revised data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicating substantially larger area and production in each of those years. In 2016, Nigeria’s rice area planted has increased 70% percent in production capacity, mainly due to government support programs and trade policies aimed at achieving self-sufficiency. In contrast to the substantial area expansion, yields have shown no growth over the past decade. Despite the strong production growth, Nigeria remains one of the world’s largest rice importers, with imports accounting for more than 35 percent of domestic use (FAO 2016).
- Problem Statement
Macro-level food management in Nigeria is challenged by instability in the production of cereals (Ahmad et al., 2015). However, according to the United Nation’s 2012 report, prior to the discovery of crude oil as Nigeria’s dominant economic sector, the agriculture sector contributed over 60 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 90 percent exports. The economic relevance of the agricultural sector has since declined, from 9.23% percent with the share of agriculture in GDP falling to 2.24% percent in 1980 to 2016 period and 0.8% percent in 2017 (World Development Indicator, 2016; National Bureau of Statistis, 2017).
As a result of the slow growth in agricultural output, Nigeria moved from a food sufficient country in the 1960s to a major food importer in the 1980s (Fasoranti, 2006). Within the 23 years from 1981 to 2003, aggregate agricultural production grew by only 5.4 percent (Muhammad-Lawal and Atte, 2006). Nevertheless, Nigeria’s food production rate was not enough in keeping pace with the percentage food demand which is triggered by the high rate of increasing population (Ekwute, 2001). For instance, in the year, 2004, rice demand was five million tons, which far away outstripped the supply of three million tons, as such necessitated the importation of rice to meet the short fall (Ahmad et al., 2015). In the year 2002, Nigeria becomes one of the six largest rice importers in the world. The successive programmes launched to increase rice production have not been able to reduce the resulting rice deficit. The imposition of a ban on rice imports from 1985 to 1995, lead to the increase in the relative price of rice against other major staples, boosted rice production mainly through area increase (Tijani, 2006). In a bid to suffice in production, the Federal Government of Nigeria has again placed a total ban on the importation of rice in order to improve the production of Rice in Nigeria. Different studies have been conducted on trend analysis of rice with emphasis mainly on the growth terms in yield. This study will help in revealing the status of rice production in terms of area of land under cultivation, yield, import and national production under the period reviewed.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The general objective of the study is to analyze trends in Nigeria’s rice. Specifically, the study seeks to:
- describe trends in rice output from 1980-2017 in Nigeria;
- describe the trend in yield and area planted to rice in Nigeria from 1980-2017;
- describe the trend in national rice import and price in Nigeria from 1980-2017; and
- forecast the national output and sufficiency level for 2025.
- Significance of the study
After completing this study, the information gathered will serve as relevant resource material for policy makers, as it describe the trend in rice output over two decades. The result of this research work will also assist agriculturist, government, non- governmental organization, students, farmers, extension agents and researcher in forecasting the national output and sufficiency level for 2025. It is going to form a database for continuous research on the impact and trend analysis of rice productivity.
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
This chapter reviews the conceptual framework, methodological framework, empirical framework related to Trend analysis of rice.