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ABSTRACT
This research work investigates the impact of foreign exchange management by the monetary authority of Nigeria, the Central Bank on the Nigerian economy using the ordinary least squares regression technique for time series data spanning 1981 to 2007.
From the findings of this research work, it was observed that the success of foreign exchange policies critically depends on the foreign exchange rate elasticity of foreign demand for the country’s export. In Nigeria’s case, exports are basically primary in nature i.e. either mineral or agricultural products which at reduced external prices (due to currency devaluation) do not significantly increase export earnings. Since the end result of Nigeria’s floating exchange rate regime is currency devaluation, the policy is not ideal for Nigeria’s situation. Thus, the paper concludes by recommending, among others currency appreciation combined with a relatively liberalized trade policy regime.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.0 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
This study is designed to examine the foreign exchange rate policy and management on the economic growth of Nigeria. Attention is focused on this direction because of the fact that Nigeria being a developing Nation needs to pay more attention to her economic growth and development. A developed economy will go a long way to create employment opportunities for the growing population and improve the general standard of living. The foreign exchange position has deteriorated due to continuous dwindling of the price of crude-petroleum, the Nigeria’s major foreign exchange earlier in the world market. In the light of this, Nigeria, which is endowed with abundant natural and human resources, must strive to harness all the resources for its economic development.
The management of foreign exchange is a major challenge to the monetary authorities and this is evident in the fact that foreign exchange plays a critical role in a country’s development process. For this reason, it is important to assess the impact of foreign exchange on the economy regularly so that the development process is sustained.
Foreign exchange management in a deregulated economy could be a system of exchanging the money of a country for another country’s in a free trade economy. The interdependence of countries in terms of trade has grown so much that perhaps no country can lay absolute claim and self-sufficiency in its resource requirement. However the degree of a country’s exposure to international trade determines its involvement in Foreign Exchange Management. For instance, a country with adequate supply of foreign exchange would import basic raw materials needed for economic development process, likewise, inadequate supply of foreign exchange exerts pressure on external reserves and also imposes serious constraint on the country’s development plan.
The Naira exchange rate is perhaps one of the most problematic preoccupations of the Nigerian monetary authorities ever since the introduction of the second tier Foreign Exchange Market (SFEM) in 1986. This has brought about a phenomenal increase in the number of market participants as all licensed banks become authorized dealers in foreign exchange. It has also created enormous regulatory and supervisory challenges to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
1.1 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The question of inadequate supply of foreign exchange remains a major problem as the Central Bank of Nigeria is the major supplier of funds to the market. The expansionary fiscal operations of the demand of individuals still inflict the efforts of the Apex Bank. Capital flight is still in place as people still get worried by the envisaged depreciation even as the realization of forex on one- to-one remains an uphill task. The issues of multiple bids have continued to persist even with the great penalty involved. Monitoring has continued to be a little difficult as incomplete data hold sway.
1.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The need for foreign exchange management lies only within the framework of countries engaged in international trade in contract to a closed economy. This need is underscored by the economic theory of comparative advantage, theory of comparative cost as well as international resources endowment differentials. This study is expected to show that a realistic exchange rate policy should reduce excessive demand for foreign exchange especially for importation of finished goods and services, as well as eliminate the prevailing distortion in the economy and stimulate non-oil exports. It is a.1so expected that a realistic exchange rate would accelerate the rate of economic growth via the attraction of more foreign capital and investment with low level
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The objective of this study is to analyse the past experiences of the Nigerian Monetary Authority (Central Bank of Nigeria) in the management of foreign exchange and investigate whether or not exchange rate is effectively managed by examining its impact on the Nigerian economy.
1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
COLLECTION OF DATA
The data relevant for this study are obtained from various secondary sources and diverse documentary publications such as the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research (NISER) among others.
Secondary time series data which can capture the relationship between exchange rate polices and export performance are relevant for the study. These data include variables such as real exchange rate; export value, interest rates, Gross Domestic Product and domestic price levels. These macro-economic variables directly and indirectly impact upon the velocity and the direction of trade between one country and the rest of the world. The propensity and capacity to export is thus influenced by the aforementioned variables.
METHOD OF ANALYSIS
The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression techniques will be used in estimating the impact of exchange rate policies on exports in Nigeria between 1981 and 2007.
The ordinary least square regression is a fairly simple estimation technique with desirable optimal properties, linearity and unbiasdness.
The OLS regression is based on the model below
GDP = Bo + B1 Export + B2 EXCR + B3 IMPORT +µ
Where:
EXPORT = Total export (Oil & non – oil)
EXCR = Exchange Rate
GDP = Gross Domestic Product at Market Price.
IMPORT = Total import (oil and non-oil).
STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS
Ho: The naira exchange rate has no significant effect on Nigeria’s economy.
Hi: The naira exchange rate has a significant effect of the Nigeria economy.
1.5 SCOPE AND LIMITATION
The impact of exchange rate, export and import on the Gross Domestic Product will be analysed between periods 1981 and 2007. Also, concerning the important role foreign exchange management plays on the economy, efforts will be made to examine various techniques being adopted by the Apex Bank in managing the nation’s foreign exchange.
1.6 CHAPTERIZATION
Chapter one – Chapter one consists of the background to the study, the statement of the research problem, objectives, significance of the study as well as the scope of the study and research methods.
Chapter Two -Literature Review and theoretical framework of foreign exchange. Views and related studies of earlier writers on this topic are considered in this chapter.
Chapter Three – This Chapter will examine the performance of exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange policies in Nigeria.
Chapter Four – Research methodology and Data Analysis. This chapter ‘will show the data collected, the regression results, and the summary or interpretation of these results
Chapter Five: Summary, Conclusion of the Findings For the Study and Policy Recommendation.
REFERENCES
Itsede (2003) “Exchange Rate Behaviour and competitiveness” Journal of West AfricaVol. 1 No.1 June pg 1-34.
Jhingan M. L. (1991) Macroeconomics 10th edition, (Dellini Vrinda Publication) (P) Ltd, P 697.
Utomi P. (1997) Lagos Business School Management Review (July- December) 1997 Vol. 2 pg 90.
Nnanna, O. J. (2002) Functioning of the Forex Market, Central Bank
Bulletin Vol. 17 No.2 June 2002 pg 11-14
Pertinent websites
www.Thisdayonline.com/archive/2003/ 12/01/2002