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RESILIENCE BUILDING IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURE: ECONOMIC MODELING OF FLOOD MITIGATION STRATEGIES POST-2025 PROJECTIONS
Abstract
This thesis examines resilience-building strategies in Nigerian agriculture through economic modeling of flood mitigation measures, with a focus on post-2025 projections. The study utilizes a mixed-methods approach, integrating quantitative economic modeling via a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework with qualitative survey data. The research population comprises agricultural households in flood-prone regions of Nigeria, notably Benue, Kogi, Delta, Bayelsa, and Anambra, which face heightened vulnerability to recurrent flooding. A stratified random sampling method was employed to select 250 farmers representing smallholder, medium-scale, and commercial farming operations. Econometric simulations were conducted for projection analysis, while thematic analysis was applied to interpret survey responses. Findings indicate that without improved mitigation efforts, floods may decrease Nigeria’s agricultural GDP contribution by 15-25% by 2030, potentially worsening food insecurity for more than 30 million people. However, interventions such as early warning systems and flood-resistant infrastructure could reduce losses by up to 40%, generating estimated annual economic savings of ₦500 billion. The study recommends government investment in climate-smart agriculture, subsidized flood insurance programs for farmers, and community-based early warning networks to enhance adaptive capacity. The research concludes that integrated economic and policy frameworks are essential for fostering sustainable agricultural development and ensuring national food security in Nigeria given escalating climate risks.
Chapter One
Introduction
1.1 Background of the Study
Nigeria’s agricultural sector remains a critical driver of economic stability, accounting for 24% of GDP and employing over 70% of the labor force as of 2025 (Emenekwe, 2025). This sector is indispensable for food security, rural employment, and export revenue, with staple crops such as cassava, yam, rice, and maize forming the dietary foundation for millions. However, escalating climate-induced flooding presents an existential threat to agricultural productivity. Historical flooding in Nigeria has been attributed to excessive rainfall, riverine overflow, inadequate drainage, and unchecked urban sprawl into floodplains. Projections beyond 2025 indicate worsening conditions due to rising sea levels and erratic precipitation patterns linked to global climate change, including El Niño effects (Emenekwe, 2025).
The catastrophic 2022 floods devastated 33 states, displacing 2.4 million people, destroying 1.7 million hectares of farmland, and incurring livestock losses exceeding ₦13 billion (FAO, 2024). Beyond immediate crop failures, these events have triggered prolonged soil degradation and erosion, severely reducing agricultural output. This underscores the necessity for resilience-building interventions, defined here as the capacity of farming systems to absorb climate shocks, adapt to environmental shifts, and sustain functionality (Balogun & Smith, 2025). Economic modeling has emerged as a critical tool for evaluating mitigation strategies, including infrastructure upgrades, crop diversification, and insurance frameworks (Cheetahs Institute, 2025).
Between 2000 and 2023, natural disasters resulted in US$21 billion in direct economic losses, primarily due to flooding, which significantly diminished crop and livestock yields (Emenekwe, 2025). Predictive models suggest maize and rice production could decline by 10-17% by 2050 under moderate climate scenarios, with more severe losses in flood-prone regions such as the Niger Delta and northern riverine areas (Mercy Corps, 2024). In Bayelsa State, recurrent flooding is exacerbated by governance gaps and insufficient resources, where poor waste management and failing infrastructure deepen vulnerabilities (Fanama & Bang, 2026).
Adoption of flood-resilient agricultural practices has shown promise in mitigating these risks. Submergence-tolerant and early-maturing rice varieties have increased yields by up to 122% in flood-affected northeastern zones (Mercy Corps, 2024). Preemptive measures, including early warning systems and community preparedness programs, have proven effective, as demonstrated during the 2023 flood season (Balogun & Smith, 2025). The Federal Government’s 2025 Annual Flood Outlook identifies 148 high-risk local government areas, advocating for adaptive strategies such as resilient infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses exceeding 30% (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2025). These efforts align with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), leveraging economic modeling to optimize policy responses (Cheetahs Institute, 2025).
Complementary approaches, such as green building techniques and localized flood-resistant architecture, are gaining traction as indirect supports for agricultural communities by safeguarding settlements and enabling sustained farming (Enwin, 2025). However, systematic reviews indicate that fragmented governance in urban centers like Lagos impedes progress toward SDG targets, necessitating integrated adaptation frameworks (Afolabi & Johnson, 2025). Collectively, these findings signal a paradigm shift from disaster response to proactive resilience planning, with economic modeling providing the analytical basis for post-2025 scenario projections and policy formulation.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Despite the critical role of agriculture in Nigeria’s economy, the sector remains highly vulnerable to flooding, which has intensified due to climate variability. Flood-related economic losses undermine farmer incomes, disrupt supply chains, and contribute to national food inflation, with projections indicating a potential 20% decline in agricultural output by 2030 under current conditions (Emenekwe, 2025). The 2012 floods alone resulted in ₦381 billion in production losses and ₦101 billion in asset destruction, severely affecting livestock and fisheries (FAO, 2024). These impacts are exacerbated by insufficient mitigation infrastructure, limited adoption of flood-resistant technologies, and governance challenges, including corruption and politicized aid distribution, which collectively diminish community resilience (Fanama & Bang, 2026).
Climate models predict heightened flood frequency in riverine regions post-2025, threatening food security for over 30 million people in vulnerable areas (Mercy Corps, 2024). The absence of robust economic modeling to evaluate mitigation strategies such as dike improvements, adapted seeds, and insurance leads to inefficient resource allocation, perpetuating cycles of poverty and reliance on emergency aid (Balogun & Smith, 2025). Urban centers like Lagos illustrate these shortcomings, where unsustainable flood resilience measures fail to address underlying vulnerabilities (Afolabi & Johnson, 2025). Additionally, the lack of localized, culturally sensitive approaches neglects region-specific risks, particularly in sinking cities and flood-prone deltas, where economic resilience deteriorates without targeted interventions (Enwin, 2025).
This vulnerability disproportionately impacts smallholder farmers, who constitute 80% of the agricultural workforce and face severe losses without adequate support (Cheetahs Institute, 2025). Insufficient long-term data further impedes evidence-based policymaking, highlighting the urgency of economic modeling to assess flood mitigation strategies and enhance sustainable resilience in Nigerian agriculture amid escalating climate threats.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The study is guided by the following objectives:
- To evaluate the economic impacts of flooding on Nigerian agriculture based on post-2025 climate projections, identifying key vulnerabilities in crop production, livestock, and fisheries.
- To develop and apply economic models, such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) frameworks, for assessing the cost-benefit analysis of various flood mitigation strategies, including infrastructure development and technological adaptations.
- To propose evidence-based policy recommendations for enhancing resilience in the agricultural sector, focusing on community preparedness, adaptive governance, and sustainable investment to mitigate future flood risks.
1.4 Research Questions
To achieve the objectives, the study addresses the following questions:
- What are the projected economic impacts of flooding on Nigerian agriculture post-2025, and how do they vary across different regions and sub-sectors?
- How effective are various flood mitigation strategies in economic terms, as simulated through modeling approaches?
- What policy frameworks and interventions can be recommended to build long-term resilience in the sector?
1.5 Significance of the Study
This study holds substantial significance for multiple stakeholders. For policymakers, it provides actionable insights through economic projections and models, enabling informed decisions on resource allocation for flood mitigation. Farmers and agricultural communities benefit from practical recommendations on resilience-building practices, potentially reducing losses and improving livelihoods. Academically, it contributes to the body of knowledge on climate resilience in developing economies, offering a replicable modeling framework for similar contexts. Development agencies, such as FAO and Mercy Corps, can leverage the findings to refine interventions, while the broader society gains from enhanced food security and economic stability in Nigeria.
1.6 Scope and Delimitation of the Study
The study focuses on flood-prone agricultural regions in Nigeria, with projections extending to 2030-2050. It emphasizes economic modeling of mitigation strategies like early warning systems, flood-resistant crops, and infrastructure, drawing from secondary data and primary surveys. Delimitations include exclusion of non-flood disasters (e.g., droughts) and a primary focus on federal-level policy implications, rather than state-specific implementations. Limitations may arise from data availability on recent floods and assumptions in economic models.
1.7 Definition of Terms
- Resilience Building: The process of enhancing the capacity of agricultural systems to withstand, adapt to, and recover from flood shocks while maintaining productivity.
- Economic Modeling: The use of quantitative techniques, such as CGE models, to simulate economic scenarios and evaluate policy impacts.
- Flood Mitigation Strategies: Interventions aimed at reducing flood risks, including structural (e.g., dikes) and non-structural (e.g., early warnings) measures.
- Post-2025 Projections: Forecasts of climate and economic trends beyond 2025, based on current data and models.
References
Afolabi, O., & Johnson, A. (2025). Systematic review of flood resilience strategies in Lagos Metropolis. Frontiers in Climate. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1603798
Balogun, I., & Smith, J. (2025). Anticipatory action in river flooding risk management in Nigeria. Journal of Flood Risk Management. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70117
Cheetahs Institute. (2025). Building resilience to Nigeria’s climate-driven food crisis. https://cheetahsinstitute.org/building-resilience-to-nigerias-climate-driven-food-crisis/
Emenekwe, C. (2025). Climate damage in the agricultural sector of Nigeria. Adaptation Community. https://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-Climate-damage-in-agricultural-sector-of-Nigeria.pdf
Enwin, A. (2025). Green building strategies for climate resilience in flood-prone areas of Nigeria. African Journal of Urban Research, 1(1), 45-62. https://reports.afjur.com/index.php/ARR/article/download/12/5
Fanama, O. S., & Bang, H. N. (2026). Enhancing community resilience to frequent flooding in resource-constrained settings: Empirical insights from flood risk communication and preparedness in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, Nigeria. Environmental Science & Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2025.103782
Federal Government of Nigeria. (2025). FG unveils 2025 annual flood outlook: Introduces innovative flood risk management strategies. Ministry of Information and National Orientation. https://www.facebook.com/FMINONigeria/posts/press-release-fg-unveils-2025-annual-flood-outlook-introduces-innovative-flood-r/1074519444709109/
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO]. (2024). Resilience building in Nigeria: FAO programme review. https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7458be32-7819-4ff8-bf3f-109171be5897/content
Mercy Corps. (2024). Building climate resilience in northeast Nigeria through the adoption of climate adapted seeds. https://www.mercycorps.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/building-climate-resilience-through-adapted-seeds.pdf