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INSECURITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AND FOOD SECURITY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF BORNO STATE.
Abstract
This study explores the complex interconnection between insecurity, agricultural output, and food security within Borno State, Nigeria, and the appropriateness of an econometric model to measure the impact of current insurgency on the economy of rural areas. Using the recent empirical evidence based on surveys and national data, the analysis shows that the occurrence of conflicts especially with Boko Haram has led to displacement of farmers, reduction in arable land use, and an increase in food prices and thus worsening the problem of malnutrition. The study will explain the socioeconomic factors behind food insecurity, as well as come up with evidence-based policy responses. Comparative studies indicate that there is a strong negative correlation between indicators of insecurity and agricultural productivity, which suggests the need to develop integrated security strategies, agricultural innovation, and community resilience programmes to ensure sustainable food source in the area (Maisule et al., 2025; Baba and Michael, 2025; Yahaya et al., 2026; Ukwe, 2025).
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Borno State in the northeastern part of Nigeria is characterized by a large agricultural land, which sustains a population of more than six million, where most of the population in crop farming, herding of livestock, and fishing activities are employed. The state has long been a major stakeholder in the food basket of Nigeria, where it produces staple food including sorghum, millet, rice, and groundnuts that are important in the food chains of the country. Nevertheless, with the outbreak of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2009, Borno has been experiencing deep upheaval as it is turning into a region of systemic instability and is no longer a productive agrarian center. This insecurity has taken the form of direct assaults on agricultural communities, infrastructural damage, and forced displacement, leading to a severe drop in agricultural production, estimated at 5090 -per cent in conflict-prone regions, and the cause of acute food shortages in millions (Maisule et al., 2025; Ukwe, 2025).
The larger picture of food insecurity in Nigeria displays a national crisis within the region conflicts and the environmental issues. According to recent analyses, Nigeria is the 109 th state in the 2023 Global Hunger Index, compared to 125 countries, and food inflation has skyrocketed to 40.01 -1 in March 2024, mainly because of insecurity in the northwest of the country, namely the states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. In such areas, the armed groups displaced more than two million individuals, left fertile lands unattended and distorted access to markets thus inflating the food prices and decreasing the variety of diet. Econometric analyses at the national level using the ordinary least squares and vectors autoregression model show that insecurity proxies, including conflict incidences and displacement rates, have a strong adverse effect on food production indices, which channel resources out of agriculture into emergency responses and worsen undernourishment (Yahaya et al., 2026; Eneh, 2025). In Borno particularly, the small-scale farmers, who form the bulk of the agricultural labor force, complain about increased risk perception, in the form of herder-farmer conflict and banditry, worsening the impacts of climate variability, such as unpredictable rainfall and land degradation, even more, reducing productivity (Baba and Michael, 2025).
Furthermore, the interaction of socioeconomic elements, such as poverty, low literacy rates and gender differences, exacerbates vulnerabilities among rural households in Borno. The concept of system dynamics modelling has demonstrated how the conventional rain-fed farming systems have failed to provide any food security in the face of insecurity with changes in the crop yields failing to result in better food access because of the lack of good distribution channels. Other interventions like sustainable agriculture advocacy have proven successful in the pilot regions leading to a reduction of food insecurity by 58 30 to 30 30 percentage in 10 years but implementation has been a challenge due to the continued threats (Eneh, 2025; Amaza, 2018). This research employs the use of econometric instruments to unravel these dynamics in Borno as a continuation of the literature to generate quantifiable information on ways of restoring agricultural resilience and food security.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The agricultural sector that was previously a source of economic stability in Borno State is currently faced with acute incidences of insurgency that have led to widespread farmland abandonment, loss of livestock, and large-scale lack of productivity. The farmers are exposed to threats on an everyday basis, such as kidnappings, land mines, and violent attacks that result in displacements and a huge area of arable land remains idle in high-conflict areas, resulting in a 90-percent decrease in crop yields. This has led to acute food insecurity with more than 4.46 million residents suffering severe hunger as is shown by integrated food security phase classification (IPC), with household surveys showing that 63 percent of residents blame declining food supply as directly related to declining production (Maisule et al., 2025; Ukwe, 2025). The inability to access the market due to the destroyed infrastructure and the limited movements has led to the price of food being pushed higher meaning that healthy diets will be unaffordable to low-income earners and the prevalence of malnutrition especially in children and women is on the rise.
On a national level, insecurity disturbs supply chain, exaggerates importation addictions, and frustrates self-sufficiency targets. However, not many econometric assessments are unique to Borno, and many of the resilience-mediating socioeconomic variables at local levels, including household size, education, and income, are overlooked. Current policies, even though supposed to help in improving security, often cannot encompass agricultural recovery, still continuing the cycles of poverty where households with 60-87 percent moderate to severe food insecurity are still reported. In the absence of specific econometric studies, including regression models that take the effects of endogeneity and time-related series into consideration, interventions may cause inefficiency, extending the period of instability and reducing the process of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 on zero hunger (Yahaya et al., 2026; Baba and Michael, 2025). This discrepancy highlights the necessity of a strict empirical study that can be used to shape context-specific policies in Borno.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The broad objective is to perform an econometric analysis of the interconnections between insecurity, agricultural productivity, and food security in Borno State. Specific objectives include:
- To quantify the effects of insurgency on agricultural productivity through regression-based modeling.
- To identify and analyze socioeconomic determinants influencing food security in farming households.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of existing policy interventions in alleviating insecurity’s impacts on food stability.
- To explore the role of sustainable agricultural practices in enhancing resilience against conflict-induced disruptions.
- To propose evidence-based recommendations for integrated security and agricultural policies to improve food security outcomes.
1.4 Research Questions
- What is the extent of insurgency’s impact on agricultural productivity in Borno State?
- Which socioeconomic factors most significantly affect food security among farmers?
- How effective are current policies in mitigating the effects of insecurity on food insecurity?
- What contributions do sustainable practices make to food security in conflict zones?
- What econometric insights can guide future policy recommendations for Borno State?
1.5 Significance of the Study
This study can be of immense importance to various stakeholders because it has given econometric data on insecurity-productivity- food security nexus in Borno State, which represents an epitome of conflict-related agrarian economies in sub-Saharan Africa. To policymakers and government bodies, the results provided can serve as a quantifiable data to optimise interventions, including prioritising farmer resettlement programmes and infrastructure reconstruction, which may decrease food insecurity by up to 28 per cent as seen in comparable operations, in line with Nigeria, obligations to the Sustainable Development Goals on food insecurity eradication and peacebuilding (Amaza, 2018; Ukwe, 2025). The models developed in the research will help NGOs and international organisations, such as the FAO, to develop specific assistance, targeting vulnerable populations and supporting technologies that would increase the yields in the face of threats, which could contribute to the improvement of the household food security index.
Academically, it advances methodological applications in conflict economics, demonstrating how tools like system dynamics and logit regressions can dissect multifaceted issues, inspiring comparative studies in other insurgency-prone areas like Somalia or Mali. For local communities in Borno, the insights empower advocacy for better resource allocation, fostering resilience and economic recovery. Overall, by highlighting pathways to sustainable agriculture amid insecurity, this study contributes to broader discourses on food security in fragile states, potentially influencing national strategies to avert crises where one in ten Nigerians faces hunger, and supporting long-term stability in the northeast (Eneh, 2025; Yahaya et al., 2026).
1.6 Scope of the Study
The study is confined to Borno State, Nigeria, spanning 2010-2025, with emphasis on insurgency-impacted local government areas. It relies on secondary data from national databases and primary household surveys, focusing on econometric assessments of core variables: insecurity, productivity, and food security. Constraints include restricted access to conflict zones and possible response biases in data collection.
1.7 Definition of Terms
- Insecurity: Vulnerability arising from armed conflicts, insurgency, and related threats that impede socioeconomic activities, especially agriculture (Yahaya et al., 2026).
- Agricultural Productivity: Output efficiency in farming, quantified by yields per hectare and input utilization (Maisule et al., 2025).
- Food Security: Access to adequate, safe, and nutritious food across dimensions of availability, access, utilization, and stability (Baba & Michael, 2025).
- Econometric Analysis: Statistical modeling of economic relationships using techniques like regression to test hypotheses (Eneh, 2025).
References
Amaza, P. (2018). Impact on household food security of promoting sustainable agriculture among farming households in Borno State, Nigeria. Agecon Search. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/277204/files/1330.pdf
Baba, B. A., & Michael, T. O. (2025). Socioeconomic determinants of food security in conflict-affected Borno State, Nigeria. International Journal of Integrated Science and Technology, 3(3), 1365–1372. https://doi.org/10.59890/ijist.v3i3.460
Eneh, C. A. (2025). A system dynamics analysis of agricultural practices and food security in Nigeria. PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12335133
Maisule, S. A., Fadiji, T. O., Barnabas, T. M., Aluko, O., & Sennuga, S. O. (2025). Analysis of small-scale farmers’ perception of the effect of insurgency on food security in Borno State, Nigeria. Global Academic Journal of Agriculture and Biosciences, 7(2), 23–35. https://doi.org/10.36348/gajab.2025.v07i02.002
Ukwe, C. (2025). Nigeria and food security challenges: Intertwining of climate change and non-state armed groups and policy interventions. In IntechOpen. https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/1189542
Yahaya, E., Yahaya, E., & Ojiya, E. A. (2026). An evaluation of national insecurity and sustainable food production in Nigeria: An econometric approach. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/400552691_An_Evaluation_of_National_Insecurity_and_Sustainable_Food_Production_in_Nigeria_An_Econometric_Approach