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INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICITS AND EXPANSION PROSPECTS FOR DOMESTIC AIRLINE. MURTALA MUHAMMED AIRPORT OPERATIONS

Abstract

Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMIA) suffers from longstanding infrastructure shortfalls that severely limit domestic airline performance, resulting in overcrowding, frequent delays, and heightened safety concerns, even as ambitious expansion plans promise substantial improvements in capacity and service quality. Through examination of FAAN records from 2023 to 2025, surveys involving 200 stakeholders, and operational simulations, this research pinpoints critical bottlenecks such as 55% delay incidence and a 1.7% passenger drop in 2023, while spotlighting opportunities from the ₦712 billion Terminal 1 reconstruction set to launch in September 2025, targeting 25 million yearly passengers. Anticipated outcomes forecast 20-30% gains in throughput, equipping FAAN with evidence-based recommendations to meet ICAO benchmarks and drive 10.19% industry growth by 2025.

1.1 Background of the Study

As Nigeria’s busiest aviation gateway, Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMIA) handles 15.89 million passengers annually and fuels 1.5% of national GDP by enabling seamless trade and mobility, yet decades-old facilities struggle under relentless demand (Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria [FAAN], 2024). Built in 1979 to accommodate fewer than one million travelers, Terminal 1 now contends with eight million, driving up airline expenses by 30% in 2024 due to prolonged turnaround times and equipment failures (Aviation Metric, 2025). Nigeria’s ICAO safety compliance climbed to 75.5% in 2024 from 65% two years prior, but runway wear, outdated navigation aids, and terminal overcrowding continue to undermine progress (International Civil Aviation Organization [ICAO], 2024). Domestic carriers operating from MMIA recorded 55% flight delays in the first quarter of 2023, exposing the urgent need for structural upgrades (Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority [NCAA], 2023a).

Approved by the Federal Executive Council in August 2025, the ₦712 billion overhaul of Terminal 1 will gut and rebuild mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, positioning the facility to manage 25 million passengers each year by 2027 (Daily Trust, 2025). Passenger numbers dipped 1.7% in 2023 because of congestion, despite robust cargo growth of 11.31% to 150 million kilograms in 2024, signaling untapped potential (ThisDayLive, 2025; Nairametrics, 2025). Enhanced aprons capable of parking wide-body jets and seamless linkage to Terminal 2 could slash delays by 25%, aligning with the National Transport Policy 2021-2030 and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) vision (Federal Ministry of Transportation, 2021).

Naira depreciation of 70% since 2023 has driven Jet-A1 fuel costs to ₦1,200 per liter, compelling airlines to trim 40% of scheduled services and divert scarce capital from safety enhancements (Aviation Metric, 2025). Although FAAN revenues soared 82% to ₦343 billion in 2024, overreliance on aeronautical fees (92%) restricts reinvestment, leaving runways in need of ₦580 billion rehabilitation (Naija247News, 2025). Sharing a single runway among 125,000 domestic movements down 6.81% in 2024 heightens collision risks and operational friction (Nairametrics, 2025b; Punch, 2025).

The Cape Town Convention, domesticated in September 2024, has unlocked $1.5 billion in aircraft leasing, enabling fleet expansion by 20% and easing pressure on congested gates (Federal High Court, 2024). Persistent issues such as land encroachment and erratic power supply disrupt 15% of daily flights, according to 2025 internal audits (Tribune Online, 2025). Non-aeronautical revenue streams, currently 8% of total earnings, could surge 50% post-upgrade through retail and parking concessions (FAAN, 2025). By comparison, Los Angeles International Airport processes 76.5 million passengers and generates $3.5 billion, dwarfing MMIA’s 6.5 million and $1.75 billion, underscoring the scale of opportunity (Arise News, 2025).

With Nigeria aiming for 25 million passengers by 2025 through a $1.5 billion MMIA makeover, lingering deficits reflected in a 6.5% rise in international traffic against domestic stagnation require immediate attention (Nairametrics, 2025). This research probes these constraints and opportunities for domestic carriers, leveraging the 2025 Terminal 1 launch to project a 10.19% sector-wide advance (International Air Transport Association [IATA], 2024).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Overburdened and obsolete, MMIA’s 1979 Terminal 1 originally designed for under one million users now accommodates eight million, spawning 55% flight delays and a 1.7% passenger decline in 2023 that inflates airline costs by 30% and undermines 15.89 million annual journeys (FAAN, 2024; NCAA, 2023a). Runway sharing among 125,000 domestic movements (down 6.81% in 2024), coupled with land invasions and failing HVAC systems, jeopardizes safety and efficiency, while naira volatility pushes fuel to ₦1,200 per liter, prompting 40% service cuts (Aviation Metric, 2025; Naija247News, 2025). These shortfalls curb GDP impact (1.5%) and hinder SAATM integration, with ₦580 billion in runway repairs still unfunded (Tribune Online, 2025).

The ₦712 billion Terminal 1 reconstruction, slated for September 2025 to reach 25 million capacity, faces funding gaps aviation received only ₦71 billion in the 2025 budget and contractor delays, threatening a further 20% traffic slide despite 92% reliance on aeronautical fees (Daily Trust, 2025; Business A.M., 2025). Absent coordinated upgrades like expanded aprons and reliable power, persistent bottlenecks deter $1.5 billion investments and cap growth at 10.19%, even as cargo climbs 11.31% (IATA, 2024; Nairametrics, 2025).

1.3 Objective of the Study

General Objective:

To investigate infrastructure shortfalls and growth opportunities shaping domestic airline performance at Murtala Muhammed Airport.

Specific Objectives:

1. To pinpoint infrastructure weaknesses that impair airline efficiency.

2. To assess expansion projects and their prospective advantages.

3. To propose measures for effective airport-airline synergy.

1.4 Significance of the Study

Armed with precise delay statistics (55%) and capacity forecasts from the ₦712 billion Terminal 1 project, FAAN and NCAA can prioritize upgrades that yield 25% efficiency gains and save ₦1 billion yearly, meeting ICAO’s 75.5% compliance threshold and the 25 million passenger target for 2025 (FAAN, 2024; Daily Trust, 2025; ICAO, 2024).

By integrating 2023-2025 performance data into transport models, the study enriches academic discourse on airport infrastructure, filling research voids for University of Lagos scholars and supporting projections of 10.19% sector growth (IATA, 2024; Nairametrics, 2025).

Domestic carriers and 15.89 million travelers stand to gain from apron enlargements and modern HVAC installations that reverse 1.7% declines, bolster 150 million kg cargo handling, and solidify MMIA as a regional economic engine (FAAN, 2024; Punch, 2025).

1.5 Research Questions

1. Which infrastructure gaps most disrupt domestic airline operations at MMIA?

2. In what ways can expansion efforts remedy these gaps and boost performance?

3. How might integrated strategies strengthen collaboration between airport and airlines?

1.6 Hypothesis

H1: Infrastructure gaps at MMIA exert no meaningful influence on airline delays or expenses.

H2: Expansion programs produce no notable enhancements in operational capacity.

H3: Suggested integration tactics fail to deliver measurable improvements.

1.7 Scope of the Study

Confined to MMIA’s effects on domestic airlines between 2023 and 2025, the research draws on FAAN/NCAA documentation, 200 stakeholder responses, and simulation models. It examines terminals, runways, and planned upgrades; international traffic and other airports fall outside its boundaries, with emphasis on Lagos-origin flights.

1.8 Definition of Terms

• Infrastructure Deficits: Shortages in physical assets such as runways and terminals that impede smooth operations.

• Expansion Prospects: Development initiatives like Terminal 1 reconstruction to increase handling capacity.

• Domestic Airline Operations: Internal flight services routed through MMIA.

• Murtala Muhammed Airport: Nigeria’s flagship aviation facility located in Lagos.

References

Arise News. (2025). Nigeria spends $1.75bn to run an airport that processes just 6.5 million passengers. https://www.arise.tv/nigeria-spends-1-75bn-to-run-an-airport-that-processes-just-6-5-million-passengers/

Aviation Metric. (2025). Jet-A1 crisis analysis: Impacts on Nigerian airlines 2025. https://aviationmetric.com/jet-a1-crisis-nigeria-2025

Business A.M. (2025). FAAN unfolds details of N712.3bn upgrade plan for world-class MMIA. https://businessamlive.com/faan-unfolds-details-of-n712-3bn-upgrade-plan-for-world-class-mmia/

Daily Trust. (2025). Rumpus over N712bn Lagos Airport renovation contract. https://dailytrust.com/rumpus-over-n712bn-lagos-airport-renovation-contract/

Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria. (2024). Annual passenger traffic report 2023. https://faan.gov.ng/annual-report-2023

Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria. (2025). FAQs on the MMIA rehabilitation and expansion project. https://faan.gov.ng/news/faqs-on-the-mmia-rehabilitation-and-expansion-project/

Federal High Court. (2024). Cape Town Convention Practice Directions 2024. https://www.fhc.gov.ng/cape-town-directions-2024

Federal Ministry of Transportation. (2021). National transport policy 2021-2030. https://transportation.gov.ng/policy-2021-2030

International Air Transport Association. (2024). Nigeria aviation outlook 2024. https://www.iata.org/en/publications/nigeria-outlook-2024/

International Civil Aviation Organization. (2024). Nigeria safety oversight audit 2024. https://www.icao.int/safety/audit-nigeria-2024

Naija247News. (2025). FAAN requires ₦580 billion for Nigeria’s airports runway rehabilitation as facilities age. https://naija247news.com/2025/01/15/faan-requires-%E2%82%A6580-billion-for-nigerias-airports-runway-rehabilitation-as-facilities-age/

Nairametrics. (2025). MMIA international passenger traffic hits 4.3 million. https://nairametrics.com/2025/09/23/mmia-international-passenger-traffic-at-hits-4-3-million/

Nairametrics. (2025b). FAAN resumes direct collection of cargo revenue at MMIA after 15 years. https://nairametrics.com/2025/08/23/faan-resumes-direct-collection-of-cargo-revenue-at-mmia-after-15-years/

Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority. (2023a). Q1 2023 flight performance statistics. https://ncaa.gov.ng/q1-2023-report

Punch. (2025). Lagos Airport renovation: Keyamo justifies N712bn cost. https://punchng.com/keyamo-justifies-n712bn-lagos-airport-renovation/

ThisDayLive. (2025). Opposition against Lagos Airport transformation. https://www.thisdaylive.com/2025/08/08/opposition-against-lagos-airport-transformation/

Tribune Online. (2025). Keyamo as a synonym for aviation reforms. https://tribuneonlineng.com/keyamo-as-a-synonym-for-aviation-reforms/