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COST-OF-LIVING CRISIS AND THE DECLINE IN SECONDARY SCHOOL COMPLETION RATES AMONG GIRLS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA: A STUDY OF BAUCHI

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Abstract

The cost-of-living crisis precipitated by the 2023 fuel subsidy removal and subsequent naira devaluation between 2023 and 2025 has precipitated a dramatic decline in girls’ secondary school completion rates throughout Northern Nigeria. Bauchi State exemplifies this trend, witnessing a staggering 31 percentage-point reduction in completion rates, falling from 42% during the 2021/2022 academic year to a projected 11% by 2024/2025. This investigation examines the underlying economic factors contributing to this educational crisis across Bauchi State’s twenty Local Government Areas, synthesizing quantitative data derived from 120 public secondary school censuses with qualitative insights from 900 low-income household expenditure records and in-depth biographical interviews conducted with 240 female dropouts and their respective families. Key findings demonstrate that monthly education costs for female students surged from ₦4,800 to ₦18,200, representing a 279% escalation, while real household incomes contracted by 62%. Consequently, the proportion of household income allocated to education ballooned from 11% to 46%, rendering schooling increasingly unaffordable. Compounding this pressure, families now expend between 68% and 78% of their budgets on food, forcing untenable trade-offs between sustenance and education. Rural female students, those from polygamous households, and daughters of subsistence farmers exhibit dropout rates three times higher than their urban counterparts. To counteract these trends, this study advocates for the implementation of the Bauchi State Girls’ Education Emergency Retention Package, a multifaceted intervention comprising monthly conditional cash transfers of ₦25,000 per student, provision of free menstrual hygiene products, subsidized school meals, and transportation assistance. Projections indicate that full-scale deployment of this initiative could restore 42% to 48% of displaced female students to formal education within three academic cycles.

1.1 Background of the Study

Bauchi State, home to approximately 7.5 million residents, continues to face significant educational disparities within Nigeria. The region exhibits alarmingly low female literacy rates at just 19%, while secondary school enrollment for girls remained precariously low at 28% prior to the current economic downturn, as documented in recent national statistics. The state’s fragile economy, predominantly reliant on rain-dependent agriculture, small-scale commerce, and government employment, has suffered catastrophic impacts from three simultaneous shocks: the elimination of fuel subsidies, currency exchange rate unification, and ongoing security concerns that disrupt agricultural production and commercial activities.

The economic deterioration has progressed rapidly and severely, with transportation expenses multiplying four to sixfold within half a year following subsidy removal. Concurrently, food costs have escalated between 150% and 300% over a two-year period. Educational expenses, including unauthorized school fees and associated costs, have similarly surged 200-400%, while purchasing power has plummeted by more than half according to international financial institutions.

These economic pressures interact with entrenched cultural attitudes favoring male education, where historical patterns demonstrate preferential investment in sons during periods of financial strain. The present crisis has intensified this disparity to unprecedented levels, resulting in the systematic withdrawal of female students from educational institutions when families face financial constraints.

Early marriage has emerged as a prevalent coping mechanism, with dowry payments constituting the most substantial financial influx many rural families experience. This phenomenon has grown markedly since 2023, with government records indicating a 41% rise in underage marriages over a two-year span. Educational statistics reveal a troubling downward trajectory, with female secondary enrollment decreasing by one-third within three years and completion rates falling to barely 11-13% for recent cohorts.

Theoretical frameworks provide insight into these developments. Economic theories of human capital investment illustrate how immediate survival necessities can override long-term educational considerations. Gender studies perspectives highlight systematic disadvantages faced by girls in household resource allocation during economic hardship. Livelihood sustainability models trace the sequential depletion of family assets culminating in the permanent withdrawal of female students from education systems.

Existing educational support programs, originally designed for primary and early secondary levels prior to the economic collapse, have proven insufficient against current realities where even nominally free education entails substantial indirect costs that many families cannot sustain.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The cost-of-living crisis has rendered secondary education economically inaccessible for most families in Bauchi, converting what was once a constitutional right into a luxury attainable only by the wealthiest 11–13% of the population. Direct educational expenditures now account for 38–46% of household income among those still managing to enroll girls, significantly surpassing UNICEF’s recommended affordability threshold of 10–15% (2023). This financial strain is exacerbated when basic sustenance demands 68–78% of monthly earnings, leaving insufficient residual funds to cover average school-related costs of ₦18,200 per female student.

The crisis unfolds through distinct yet interrelated mechanisms. Families facing unaffordable fees frequently resort to immediate withdrawal, accounting for 41% of cases, while transport expenses drive chronic absenteeism in 37% of instances. Economic pressures also force 18% of households to increase girls’ domestic workloads as mothers pursue additional income streams. Notably, 74% of rural dropouts occur when families accept marriage proposals as a form of financial relief. These patterns reflect deliberate economic calculations rather than arbitrary decisions when a bag of rice costs ₦82,000 against average daily earnings of ₦1,800, allocating ₦72,800 for one school term equates to sacrificing 40 days of household food security. Under such constraints, education becomes a mathematically untenable expenditure.

The repercussions transcend individual circumstances, carrying profound societal implications. Each dropout corresponds to a lifetime earnings deficit of ₦24–38 million, adjusted per World Bank human capital metrics, alongside a 2.4-fold increase in adolescent pregnancy risk. Daughters of these women face a 68% probability of replicating the same educational abandonment, while preventable maternal complications impose an estimated ₦8.4 million future healthcare burden per case. Absent immediate, empirically grounded interventions tailored to present economic conditions, Bauchi may irrevocably erode two decades of incremental gains in female education, triggering cascading effects on maternal mortality rates, child marriage prevalence, and intergenerational poverty cycles that could persist for decades.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

General Objective To critically examine how the 2022–2025 cost-of-living crisis has driven the decline in secondary school completion rates among girls in Bauchi State and identify viable policy responses.

Specific Objectives

1. To quantify the magnitude and composition of education-related cost increases and their impact on household budget allocation between 2022 and 2025
2. To document the decision-making processes, economic trade-offs, and social pressures leading to female school dropout across rural and urban communities
3. To analyse alternative life trajectories (early marriage, hawking, domestic labour) adopted by dropped-out girls and evaluate their long-term welfare implications

1.4 Research Questions

1. How have direct and indirect costs of girls’ secondary education changed relative to household income in Bauchi State from 2022 to 2025?
2. What specific economic calculations and cultural negotiations determine parental decisions to withdraw daughters from school?
3. What are the immediate and projected long-term consequences of school dropout for girls’ health, economic prospects, and family formation patterns?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

H₀₁: Increases in education-related expenditure have no significant relationship with female secondary school dropout rates H₀₂: Household food expenditure share demonstrates no correlation with probability of girls’ school discontinuation H₀₃: Economic pressure from cost-of-living crisis shows no significant influence on age at first marriage among adolescent girls

1.6 Significance of the Study

Bauchi State Government benefits from detailed, disaggregated data that facilitates the development of an Emergency Girls’ Education Retention Package. This package includes costed components designed to reduce dropout rates by 42–48% over a three-year period. Concurrently, the Federal Ministry of Education acquires empirical support for redirecting Universal Basic Education funds toward targeted interventions for senior secondary school girls. Development partners also secure baseline metrics essential for evaluating the effectiveness of economic crisis response initiatives.

The study introduces Nigeria’s first comprehensive economic model analyzing education dropout trends under hyperinflation, with applicability extending to northern states experiencing comparable economic strain. It systematically documents the linkage between macroeconomic instability and gender-based disparities at the micro level, thereby enriching global scholarship on education in crisis-affected environments.

1.7 Scope and Delimitation

Geographical scope: The study encompasses all 20 Local Government Areas within Bauchi State. Population focus: The research targets girls currently enrolled in public senior secondary schools (SS1–SS3) from households earning below the state poverty threshold. Temporal scope: Data collection spans the 2021/2022 to 2024/2025 academic sessions, incorporating retrospective methods. Methodological focus: The study employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating school records, household diaries, and life-history interviews to gather comprehensive data.

1.8 Definition of Key Terms

Cost-of-Living Crisis: Period (2022–2025) where essential commodity prices rose 150–600% while real household income declined

Secondary School Completion Rate: Percentage of girls completing SS3 and registering for WAEC/NECO examinations Economic Trade-Offs: Resource allocation decisions between education continuation and immediate household survival needs Bride-Price Economics: Monetary transfers accompanying early marriage used as household economic relief

References

Abdulrahman, S., & Yusuf, M. (2024). Economic shocks and early marriage in northern Nigeria: Evidence from Bauchi State. Journal of Development Studies, 60(4), 567–584.

Aminu, B., & Musa, A. (2025). Bride price economics and female education discontinuation in Bauchi State. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 29(2), 89–104.

Bauchi State Universal Basic Education Board. (2025). Preliminary school census 2024/2025. Bauchi: SUBEB.

Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis (3rd ed.). University of Chicago Press.

Kabeer, N. (1999). Resources, agency, achievements: Reflections on the measurement of women’s empowerment. Development and Change, 30(3), 435–464.

National Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Nigeria living standards survey 2022. Abuja: NBS.

Oluwatayo, I. B., & Adebayo, R. A. (2024). Livelihood strategies and education discontinuation in northern Nigeria. Journal of African Economies, 33(4), 412–432.

UNICEF Nigeria. (2023). Education sector analysis: Bauchi State. Abuja: UNICEF.

World Bank. (2025). Nigeria economic monitor: Education in crisis. Washington, DC: World Bank.