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THE ROLE OF POVERTY AND HOUSEHOLD SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS IN OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN RATES ACROSS GEOPOLITICAL ZONES IN NIGERIA.
Abstract
Out-of-school children (OOSC) constitute a major barrier to Nigeria’s achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 4, with 10.2 million primary-school-age children and approximately 20 million when including secondary-school-age youth excluded from formal education (Nwoke, 2024; Oyekan et al., 2023). This thesis examines the role of poverty and household socio-economic status (SES) in driving OOSC rates across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.
The study adopted a mixed-methods design utilising secondary quantitative data from the Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS 2016–2017), Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI 2022), and National Education Data Survey, supplemented by qualitative insights from participatory studies across all zones. Quantitative analysis involved descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression models to assess relationships between multidimensional poverty/SES indicators (wealth quintiles, parental employment, household size) and OOSC prevalence, while thematic analysis explored zone-specific mechanisms.
Findings reveal stark zonal disparities: OOSC rates are highest in the North-East (primary-age girls 42.4%) and North-West, where child multidimensional poverty exceeds 90%, compared to the South-West (65.1%) and South-East (74%). Poverty and low household SES explain a significant portion of variance in OOSC, with a clear wealth-gradient effect (highest prevalence in the poorest quintile) and strong positive correlation between unemployment and non-enrolment. Household mechanisms include child labour, early marriage, large family size, and prioritisation of survival over schooling, amplified by cultural and conflict factors in northern zones versus apprenticeship norms in southern zones.
Recommendations include zone-tailored interventions: conditional cash transfers and household economic empowerment in northern hotspots, integration of Quranic/Islamic schooling with secular education, scaled school feeding and infrastructure in rural areas, and apprenticeship-linked flexible learning in southern zones. These measures, combined with increased education budget allocation and enforcement of the Child Rights Act, are essential to reduce OOSC and break the poverty–exclusion cycle.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
Nigeria bears one of the world’s highest burdens of out-of-school children (OOSC), despite constitutional provisions for free and compulsory basic education and multiple policy frameworks including the Universal Basic Education (UBE) Act 2004. Recent national estimates place the figure at 10.2 million children aged 6-11 years, rising to approximately 20 million when secondary-school-age youth are included (Nwoke, 2024; Oyekan et al., 2023). These numbers have persisted or worsened amid economic pressures, conflict, and demographic growth, undermining national human capital development and progress toward SDG 4.
A critical dimension of the crisis is its uneven distribution across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones–North-West, North-East, North-Central, South-West, South-East, and South-South. Northern zones consistently record the highest OOSC prevalence. Data from the MICS 2016-2017 show the North-East with the highest rates: 42.4% for primary-school-age girls and 37.3% for boys; secondary-age rates remain elevated at 38.1% for girls and 36.5% for boys (Oyekan et al., 2023). Overall, northern geopolitical zones exhibit markedly higher proportions than southern zones, a pattern confirmed by spatial analyses identifying the North-East and North-West as hotspots (Adeleke & Alabede, 2022). In contrast, southern zones generally display lower OOSC rates, though challenges persist, such as boy-child withdrawal for apprenticeships in the South-East and South-South.
Poverty and household socio-economic status (SES) are pivotal drivers. The Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) 2022 reveals that 63% of Nigerians (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor, with children disproportionately affected: 67.5% of children aged 0-17 years experience multidimensional poverty, and 94% of all OOSC live in poor households (National Bureau of Statistics [NBS] et al., 2022). Child MPI incidence is extremely high in the North-East (91.2%) and North-West (90.7%), compared to the South-East (74.0%) and South-West (65.1%) for children under 5 years–an indicator strongly predictive of educational exclusion.
Household SES–encompassing wealth quintiles, parental employment, education level, and family size–directly influences enrolment and retention. Children from the poorest wealth quintile face the highest OOSC risk, with prevalence declining progressively toward the wealthiest quintile (Oyekan et al., 2023). Low-SES households struggle with indirect costs (uniforms, transport, textbooks) and opportunity costs, compelling children into labour, hawking, farming, or early marriage. A significant positive correlation exists between unemployment rates and OOSC prevalence nationally, underscoring that favourable socio-economic conditions enhance educational access (Nwoke, 2024).
Qualitative evidence across zones further illuminates mechanisms. In northern zones (e.g., Gombe and Sokoto), large household sizes, gender norms favouring boys, preference for Islamic/Quranic education, conflict-induced displacement, and nomadic lifestyles intersect with poverty to drive non-enrolment. In southern zones (e.g., Ekiti, Edo, Anambra), economic migration, apprenticeship prioritisation in low-SES families, and infrastructure failures predominate (Adediran et al., 2024). Rural-urban divides exacerbate these patterns, with rural OOSC rates exceeding 30% for secondary-age children versus under 15% in urban areas (Oyekan et al., 2023). These intersecting factors demonstrate that poverty and SES do not act in isolation but interact with zone-specific socio-cultural, security, and infrastructural contexts.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Despite substantial investments and international commitments, Nigeria’s OOSC population has not declined meaningfully and, in some estimates, has increased (Nwoke, 2024). National-level interventions have proven insufficient because they overlook geographically differentiated drivers, particularly the amplified role of poverty and low household SES in northern zones where child multidimensional poverty reaches 90%+ (NBS et al., 2022). Existing policies remain largely uniform, failing to address how low SES translates into distinct mechanisms–child labour and early marriage in the North versus apprenticeship withdrawal in the South (Adediran et al., 2024; Oyekan et al., 2023).
At the household level, parents in low-SES quintiles cannot absorb even nominal schooling costs or forgo children’s economic contributions, perpetuating a cycle of exclusion. Gender compounds the issue, with girls in poor northern households disproportionately affected. Without zone-disaggregated, rigorous analysis of poverty-SES-OOSC linkages, targeted and effective interventions remain elusive, sustaining educational inequity, intergenerational poverty transmission, and broader development deficits.
This thesis provides zone-disaggregated evidence linking poverty and SES to OOSC, advancing beyond national aggregates (Adeleke & Alabede, 2022; Nwoke, 2024). Policymakers, UBEC, and partners gain insights for differentiated interventions: northern livelihood grants and Quranic integration versus southern apprenticeship models. The study supports budgeting advocacy and SDG 4 monitoring, contributing to equitable resource allocation and poverty-education cycle disruption.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The general objective examines the role of poverty and household socio-economic status in out-of-school children rates across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones.
The specific objectives
- Map prevalence and patterns of out-of-school children by geopolitical zone.
- Examine variations in multidimensional poverty and household socio-economic status indicators across geopolitical zones.
- Analyse predictive relationships between poverty, household socio-economic status variables, and out-of-school children rates by zone.
- Identify household mechanisms linking low socio-economic status to educational exclusion in each zone.
- Propose zone-specific interventions to mitigate poverty and socio-economic status barriers to education.
1.4 Research Questions
- What are the prevailing out-of-school children rates and their distribution across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones?
- How do multidimensional poverty levels and key household socio-economic status indicators differ by zone?
- To what extent do poverty and socio-economic status variables predict out-of-school children prevalence and how does this relationship vary geographically?
- What zone-specific household mechanisms mediate the poverty-socio-economic status-out-of-school children nexus?
- What targeted context-sensitive interventions can effectively address these structural barriers?
1.5 Significance of the Study
This thesis provides zone-disaggregated evidence linking poverty and SES to OOSC, advancing beyond national aggregates (Adeleke & Alabede, 2022; Nwoke, 2024). Policymakers, UBEC, and partners gain insights for differentiated interventions: northern livelihood grants and Quranic integration versus southern apprenticeship models. The study supports budgeting advocacy and SDG 4 monitoring, contributing to equitable resource allocation and poverty-education cycle disruption.
1.6 Scope of the Study
The study encompasses children aged 6–18 across six geopolitical zones. It relies on secondary quantitative data (MICS 2021, MPI 2022, recent national statistics) and qualitative zone-representative studies. Focus remains on poverty, SES (wealth, employment, household size, parental education), and formal basic education barriers.
1.7 Limitations of the Study
Secondary data may present measurement inconsistencies across sources. Post-2022 economic and security shifts limit precise generalisability. Qualitative elements derive from existing studies, though mitigated by recent rigorous sources. Triangulation addresses these constraints.
1.8 Definition of Terms
- Out-of-School Children (OOSC): Children aged 6–18 never enrolled, dropped out, or not attending formal/approved non-formal programmes (UNICEF, 2024).
- Poverty: Multidimensional deprivation in health, education, living standards, measured via Nigeria MPI (National Bureau of Statistics et al., 2022).
- Household Socio-Economic Status (SES): Composite of wealth quintile, parental employment/education, household size, residence (Oyekan et al., 2023).
- Geopolitical Zones: Nigeria’s six regions for administrative planning.
References
Adediran, M., Ohioghame, J., Akinola, A., & Dirisu, O. (2024). The context of school deprivation among out-of-school children in Nigeria. Policy Centre.
Adeleke, R., & Alabede, O. (2022). Geographical determinants and hotspots of out-of-school children in Nigeria. Open Education Studies, 4(1), 345–355. https://doi.org/10.1515/edu-2022-0176
National Bureau of Statistics, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Children’s Fund, & Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. (2022). Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index 2022. NBS.
Nwoke, C. (2024). Assessing the phenomenon of out-of-school children in Nigeria: Issues, gaps and recommendations. Review of Education, 12(3), Article e70011. https://doi.org/10.1002/rev3.70011
Oyekan, K., Ayorinde, A., & Adenuga, O. (2023). The problem of out-of-school children in Nigeria. RISE Programme.
United Nations Children’s Fund. (2024). Situation analysis of children and adolescents in Nigeria. UNICEF Nigeria.