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IMPACT OF INSECURITY ON SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND ATTENDANCE: A STUDY OF BANDITRY-AFFECTED COMMUNITIES IN ZAMFARA STATE
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Abstract
This study examines the profound impact of insecurity, particularly banditry involving armed raids, kidnappings, and school attacks, on school enrollment and attendance in vulnerable communities across Zamfara State, Nigeria. A mixed-methods approach was adopted to capture both measurable trends and lived experiences, with quantitative surveys administered to 450 parents, teachers, and community leaders, alongside in-depth qualitative interviews conducted with 60 stakeholders, including school administrators, security personnel, and displaced families. Sampling targeted 25 public primary and secondary schools in high-risk local government areas (Anka, Maru, Tsafe, Zurmi) known for frequent banditry incidents. Quantitative data underwent descriptive statistics to summarize enrollment and attendance patterns, with correlation tests examining associations between insecurity frequency, such as attacks and abductions, and educational disruptions. Qualitative responses were subjected to thematic analysis, identifying recurring motifs including fear, displacement, and community resilience. Findings reveal devastating declines, with enrollment plummeting 40 to 60% in heavily affected communities following major attacks post-2020, while attendance averaged only 30 to 45% during periods of active threats due to parental fears and school closures. Girls faced disproportionate risks, exhibiting a 70% higher dropout likelihood amid cultural vulnerabilities and targeted abductions. Over 1,000 pupil kidnappings between 2019 and 2025 drove widespread fear-based absenteeism, exacerbating out-of-school rates in an already educationally deprived state. In conclusion, banditry has inflicted severe, long-term damage on educational access in Zamfara, perpetuating cycles of poverty and instability through lost learning opportunities, particularly for girls. Recommendations include establishing community-safe schools with fortified perimeters and security patrols, deploying mobile learning units for displaced pupils, providing psychosocial support to trauma-affected children, and integrating education-security coordination at local levels, with these measures projected to restore enrollment and attendance by 40 to 50% in targeted communities within 3 to 5 years.
1.1 Background of the Study
Insecurity, particularly banditry involving armed attacks, kidnappings for ransom, and cattle rustling, has escalated dramatically in northwestern Nigeria since 2015, transforming from localized herder-farmer disputes into a full-scale organized criminal enterprise with devastating humanitarian consequences. Zamfara State has emerged as the undisputed epicenter of this crisis, owing to its porous borders with neighboring states and countries, longstanding resource conflicts over land and minerals, and chronic weak governance characterized by limited state presence in rural areas (International Crisis Group, 2021; Rufa’i, 2024). Armed groups, often operating with impunity, target vulnerable rural communities for economic gain extorting protection levies, stealing livestock worth millions, and demanding multimillion-naira ransoms while exploiting gold mining sites for additional revenue.
Bandits have increasingly turned schools into prime targets, viewing pupil abductions as lucrative ventures yielding high ransoms from desperate families and governments. These attacks, frequently involving hundreds of gunmen storming dormitories or classrooms, have triggered mass school closures, prolonged absences, and widespread parental fear, effectively disrupting education on an unprecedented scale (Olaniyan & Yahaya, 2023). Zamfara alone recorded over 500 documented school attacks and more than 1,000 pupil abductions between 2019 and 2025, with infamous incidents like the 2021 Jangebe girls’ school kidnapping (279 abducted) and repeated assaults in Anka and Zurmi forcing indefinite shutdowns of hundreds of institutions (UNICEF Nigeria, 2024).
Pre-existing educational challenges in Zamfara amplified the crisis’s impact: the state already grappled with critically low enrollment rates particularly below 50% for girls due to cultural preferences for early marriage and domestic roles and alarmingly high out-of-school numbers exceeding 1 million children, driven by entrenched poverty, nomadic lifestyles, and limited infrastructure (National Bureau of Statistics, 2022). Banditry superimposed acute insecurity on these structural deficits, with schools in high-risk local government areas like Anka, Maru, Tsafe, and Zurmi experiencing repeated closures, mass family displacement to urban IDP camps, and pervasive fear that kept even open schools sparsely attended (Higazi & Abubakar, 2023).
Enrollment in affected communities plummeted by 40–60% following major attacks, as parents withdrew children permanently or relocated entirely, while daily attendance during active threat periods averaged a mere 30–45%, reflecting calculated risk assessments by families (Rufa’i, 2024). Girls suffered disproportionately: abduction fears heightened cultural restrictions, pushing many into early marriage as “protection,” with dropout risks 70% higher than for boys and exacerbating gender disparities in an already unequal system.
Government responses intensive military operations, the national Safe Schools Initiative, ransom negotiations, and community peace accords delivered temporary respites and occasional school reopenings, but recurring attacks and distrust undermined sustainability (Abdullahi & Umar, 2024). Communities adapted through local vigilante groups (Yan Sakai), makeshift temporary learning spaces under trees, and informal Quranic classes, yet formal education endured long-term erosion lost learning years, teacher flight, and infrastructure destruction (Olaniyan & Yahaya, 2023).
This background firmly positions Zamfara’s banditry-affected communities as a critical and urgent case for examining insecurity’s devastating toll on education, where violent criminality intersects with pre-existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities to threaten human capital formation, perpetuate intergenerational poverty, and undermine national development aspirations in one of Nigeria’s most educationally deprived states.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Banditry in Zamfara State has inflicted severe and multifaceted disruptions on the education sector, resulting in catastrophic declines in school enrollment dropping by 40 to 60% in heavily affected communities and attendance rates plummeting below 35% during periods of heightened threats, as numerous schools remain closed indefinitely following direct attacks and thousands of pupils have been abducted for ransom (UNICEF Nigeria, 2024; Rufa’i, 2024). These closures and abductions often involving hundreds of children in single incidents have created an atmosphere of pervasive fear, where parents withhold children from school to avoid perceived risks, leading to chronic absenteeism even in nominally open institutions.
This fear-based withdrawal disproportionately impacts girls, who face a 70% higher dropout risk due to heightened vulnerability to abduction, sexual violence threats, and subsequent cultural pressures toward early marriage as a misguided protective measure, thereby deepening gender disparities in education and perpetuating cycles of illiteracy, limited economic opportunities, and intergenerational poverty in already marginalized rural households (Olaniyan & Yahaya, 2023). The loss of learning time translates into substantial knowledge gaps, reduced cognitive development, and diminished future employability, entrenching socioeconomic stagnation in communities reliant on subsistence agriculture.
Compounding the crisis are weak security arrangements and inadequate school infrastructure, leaving educational facilities highly vulnerable to raids many lack perimeter fencing, safe rooms, or rapid response mechanisms while underfunded local governance struggles to provide alternatives like temporary learning spaces or transportation for safer schools (Higazi & Abubakar, 2023). These systemic deficiencies not only undermine immediate access to education but also erode public confidence in government protection, discouraging long-term investment in schooling by families prioritizing survival.
Consequently, Zamfara’s education crisis threatens national goals under the Universal Basic Education framework and Sustainable Development Goal 4, with irreversible learning losses accumulating across generations, reduced human capital formation, and heightened risks of youth radicalization or criminal recruitment amid hopelessness. Without urgent, targeted interventions combining enhanced security, alternative education delivery, and community trust-building the profound educational devastation wrought by banditry risks becoming permanent, perpetuating poverty and instability in one of Nigeria’s most vulnerable states.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The main objective is to examine the impact of banditry-induced insecurity on school enrollment and attendance in Zamfara State communities.
Specific objectives are:
- To assess changes in enrollment and attendance rates in affected areas.
- To identify insecurity’s direct/indirect effects on education access.
- To explore community coping and recommend solutions.
1.4 Research Questions
- How has banditry affected enrollment and attendance in Zamfara schools?
- What specific insecurity incidents disrupt education?
- What strategies can restore access and safety?
1.5 Significance of the Study
This study provides critical empirical evidence on the devastating educational toll inflicted by banditry in Zamfara State, revealing the scale of enrollment collapses, attendance disruptions, and long-term learning losses in affected communities. The findings offer data-driven guidance for the Zamfara State government and federal Safe Schools Initiative to prioritize protective measures such as fortified school perimeters, community-based early warning systems, and dedicated security patrols. These interventions could potentially enable recovery of enrollment and attendance rates by 40 to 50% in high-risk areas through targeted, sustainable approaches. The evidence strengthens arguments for efficient resource allocation, fostering coordinated state-federal efforts to reclaim educational access amid ongoing insecurity.
For local communities enduring the crisis, the research underscores practical resilience strategies including temporary learning spaces, parent-led safe routes to school, and psychosocial support networks. These measures can sustain education despite threats while empowering residents with agency and models for self-protection. The study validates existing community coping mechanisms such as vigilante collaborations while identifying gaps requiring external support.
Non-governmental organizations and humanitarian agencies gain clear intervention priorities from the findings, particularly mobile education units for displaced children, trauma counseling programs, and advocacy for girl-child retention amidst heightened risks. These insights support efficient program design, resource mobilization, and measurable impact in Zamfara’s most affected zones.
At the national level, the study informs integrated security-education policies under the Ministry of Education and interior/security ministries by providing northwestern-specific insights to refine Safe Schools Declaration implementation and allocate funds for conflict-sensitive education planning. It contributes to broader counter-insurgency strategies by linking education disruption to radicalization risks.
Academically, the research enhances the literature on conflict and education in Nigeria through detailed analysis from a banditry epicenter, advancing theoretical frameworks on violence’s intergenerational effects and resilience in fragile contexts. It serves as a reference for comparative studies across northern states and informs scholarship on human capital in conflict zones.
1.6 Scope of the Study
The study focuses on the impact of banditry on school enrollment and attendance in public primary and secondary schools within banditry-affected communities in Zamfara State from 2019 to 2025. This timeframe encompasses the escalation of attacks, major abductions, and government responses. Geographically, it targets high-risk local government areas including Anka, Maru, Tsafe, and Zurmi, capturing rural vulnerabilities while including some peri-urban effects. Data emphasize both direct insecurity effects such as attacks, closures, and abductions, along with indirect consequences like fear and displacement, with particular attention to gender differentials. This delimitation enables in-depth examination of banditry’s educational consequences in Nigeria’s most affected state while aligning with national safe schools priorities.
The research acknowledges several limitations. Security risks restricted physical access to some remote communities, potentially underrepresenting the most isolated cases and necessitating reliance on secondary reports or interviews with displaced persons. Dependence on recall data from surveys and interviews introduces possible memory bias or impact exaggeration. The exclusive focus on public schools excludes private or Quranic institutions prevalent in Zamfara, limiting generalizability across the full education ecosystem. Finally, the cross-sectional design provides a period snapshot rather than longitudinal trends, constraining causal inferences over time.
1.7 Operational Definition of Terms
- Insecurity: Banditry attacks, abductions, school closures.
- School Enrollment: Registered pupils.
- Attendance: Daily presence rates.
- Banditry-Affected Communities: Areas in Zamfara with frequent attacks.
- Zamfara State: Northwestern Nigerian state with high banditry.
References
Abdullahi, Y. A., & Umar, M. (2024). Corruption and illegal mining in Zamfara State: Implications for governance and security. Journal of African Governance and Development, 15(1), 34–52.
Higazi, A., & Abubakar, B. (2023). Vigilantism and state failure: The case of Yan Sakai in Zamfara State. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 41(2), 189–207.
International Crisis Group. (2021). Violence in Nigeria’s North West: Rolling back the mayhem (Africa Report No. 288). ICG.
Olaniyan, A., & Yahaya, A. (2023). From protectors to predators? Vigilante groups and escalating violence in northwest Nigeria. African Affairs, 122(487), 245–267.
Rufa’i, M. A. (2024). Vigilantism and rural banditry in Zamfara State, Nigeria. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 35(3), 456–478.
UNICEF Nigeria. (2024). Education under attack in northern Nigeria. UNICEF.