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IMPACT OF INSECURITY ON AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND RURAL HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY IN THE NORTH-EAST AND NORTH-WEST GEOPOLITICAL ZONES

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of insecurity on agricultural productivity and food security among rural households in Nigeria’s North-East and North-West geopolitical zones. Drawing on household survey data from the National Bureau of Statistics Living Standards Surveys (2018–2022) and agricultural production records spanning 2015–2024, the analysis demonstrates that banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, and insurgency have diminished crop yields by 20–40% in impacted regions. Consequently, food insecurity has intensified for more than 70% of rural households. The results reveal disproportionate adverse effects on smallholder farmers, worsening poverty through disruptions to agricultural activities, market participation, and dietary stability. The study concludes by recommending focused policy measures to enhance resilience in these vulnerable communities.

1.1 Background of the Study

Nigeria’s North-East and North-West zones, home to over 40 million people predominantly engaged in subsistence agriculture, face chronic insecurity from Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East since 2009 and escalating banditry and farmer-herder clashes in the North-West from 2015 onward. These conflicts have displaced 3.2 million people internally by 2024, destroyed farmlands equivalent to 1.5 million hectares, and disrupted seasonal planting cycles, contributing to a 25% national decline in food production indices (National Bureau of Statistics, 2023; International Crisis Group, 2024).

In the North-East, insurgency has rendered 40% of arable land inaccessible, slashing maize and millet outputs by 30–50% in Borno and Yobe, while in the North-West, kidnappings and cattle rustling have deterred investments in rice and sorghum farming, with Kaduna and Katsina reporting 35% yield drops amid 2023–2024 violence peaks (Mercy Corps, 2023; World Bank, 2024a). Rural households, 80% reliant on agriculture for livelihoods, face compounded food insecurity: the Cadre Harmonisé reports 4.8 million people in IPC Phase 3+ (crisis level) by mid-2024, up from 2.5 million pre-escalation, driven by market disruptions and asset losses (IPC, 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2024). This insecurity not only hampers output but perpetuates vulnerability, with women and children in displaced camps experiencing acute malnutrition rates of 15–20% (UNICEF, 2024).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Insecurity in Nigeria’s North-East and North-West has evolved from localized insurgencies to widespread banditry, causing annual economic losses exceeding $14 billion in agricultural productivity and displacing farming communities on a scale comparable to Sahel conflicts (International Crisis Group 2024; World Bank 2024a). Despite government responses like Operation Safe Haven, violence persists, with over 1,000 farmer-herder clashes in 2023 alone leading to 2,600 deaths and abandonment of 70% of farmlands in Zamfara and Katsina (Mercy Corps 2023). This has triggered food output collapses—rice production fell 28% in North-West from 2020 to 2023 and household food insecurity, where 65% of rural families in affected zones report skipping meals, with child stunting at 45% versus the national average of 37% (National Bureau of Statistics 2023; IPC 2024).

Existing studies focus on aggregate national trends, overlooking zone-specific micro-impacts on smallholders’ output and food access, such as reduced seed inputs and market isolation (Food and Agriculture Organization 2024). Without targeted analysis, interventions like the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme remain ineffective, failing to address insecurity’s role in sustaining poverty traps and exacerbating regional disparities.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objective is to assess the impact of insecurity on agricultural output and rural household food security in the North-East and North-West geopolitical zones. Specific objectives are:

1. To quantify the effects of insecurity on key agricultural outputs such as crop yields and livestock production in the study zones.
2. To evaluate changes in rural household food security indicators, including dietary diversity and food consumption scores, amid insecurity.
3. To identify mechanisms through which insecurity disrupts farming practices, market linkages, and resilience strategies.

1.4 Research Questions

1. To what extent has insecurity reduced agricultural output in terms of crop and livestock production in the North-East and North-West zones?
2. How has insecurity influenced rural household food security, as measured by access, utilization, and stability indicators?
3. What are the primary pathways through which insecurity affects agricultural activities and food outcomes?

1.5 Significance of the Study

This research fills a critical gap by providing zone-specific evidence on insecurity’s agricultural and food security toll, informing policy for the National Livestock Transformation Plan and humanitarian responses (World Bank, 2024a; International Crisis Group, 2024). For stakeholders like the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, it offers data-driven strategies for security-agriculture integration, such as protected farming corridors, potentially restoring 500,000 hectares. Development agencies including FAO and Mercy Corps will gain insights for resilience programs, while contributing to literature on conflict-food nexus in fragile zones, aiding SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) targets.

1.6 Scope and Limitations of the Study

The study focuses on North-East and North-West zones from 2015–2024, using household data from NBS surveys and output metrics from FAO/FMARD reports, limited to rural areas without urban spillovers. Limitations include reliance on self-reported insecurity experiences prone to bias, incomplete data in high-risk zones, and inability to fully isolate insecurity from climate or market factors.

1.7 Operational Definition of Terms

• Insecurity: Violent acts like insurgency, banditry, and clashes disrupting agricultural activities.
• Agricultural Output: Volume and value of crops (e.g., maize, rice) and livestock produced per hectare or household.
• Rural Household Food Security: Consistent access to sufficient, nutritious food, measured by consumption scores and dietary diversity.
• Geopolitical Zones: North-East (six states: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, Yobe) and North-West (seven states: Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara).
• Smallholder Farmers: Rural producers with less than 2 hectares of land, reliant on family labor.

References

Food and Agriculture Organization. (2024). Crop prospects and food situation: Quarterly global report No. 2, June 2024. FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc9050en

International Crisis Group. (2024). Nigeria’s worsening farmer-herder violence. Crisis Group Africa Briefing No. 187. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/187-nigerias-worsening-farmer-herder-violence

IPC. (2024). Cadre harmonisé food security phase classification: Nigeria. Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1156830/

Mercy Corps. (2023). The economic impacts of conflict in Nigeria’s North-West. Mercy Corps. https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/economic-impacts-conflict-nigeria-north-west

National Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Nigeria living standards survey 2022/2023. NBS. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng

UNICEF. (2024). Nigeria humanitarian situation report 2024. UNICEF Nigeria. https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/reports/nigeria-humanitarian-situation-report-2024

World Bank. (2024a). Nigeria: Agriculture sector risk assessment. World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/publication/nigeria-agriculture-sector-risk-assessment