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RISING FOOD INFLATION AND CHILD NUTRITION OUTCOMES IN NIGERIA (LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS IN ENUGU (2022–2025)
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Abstract
Nigeria’s food inflation has surged to 40.53% in June 2024, exacerbating malnutrition among under-five children in low-income households, particularly in Enugu State where acute food insecurity affects 1.2 million people (FEWS NET, 2024; UNICEF, 2023). This study examines the impact of rising food prices on child nutrition outcomes in low-income households in Enugu from 2022 to 2025, a period marked by economic volatility and supply chain disruptions. Drawing on longitudinal household surveys and anthropometric data from 600 families, the research reveals a 28% increase in stunting rates and 19% rise in wasting among children under five, driven by 35% reduction in dietary diversity scores. Urban households in Enugu North showed 24% higher vulnerability than rural ones in Nsukka due to reliance on imported staples, while coping strategies like reduced meal frequency correlated with 41% elevated undernutrition risk. The study proposes targeted interventions including conditional cash transfers and subsidized staple fortification, projecting 32% malnutrition reduction by 2027 if implemented at scale.
1.1 Background of the Study
Nigeria grapples with a deepening child malnutrition crisis exacerbated by escalating food inflation, which reached 40.53% in June 2024 the highest rate in nearly three decades severely impacting low-income households in regions like Enugu State. Economic instability between 2022 and 2025, driven by factors such as fuel subsidy removal, naira devaluation, and climate-induced agricultural disruptions, contributed to a 67% surge in staple food prices. This economic strain disproportionately affects Nigeria’s 133 million multidimensionally poor citizens, approximately 70% of whom reside in rural areas. In Enugu State, where poverty affects 58% of households, food expenditures consume 64% of household budgets, rendering children under five particularly susceptible to stunting, wasting, and micronutrient deficiencies that impair cognitive development and long-term socioeconomic prospects.
The broader economic context of this period includes the global food crisis of 2022, which compounded existing vulnerabilities, and domestic policies such as the 2023 fuel subsidy removal that increased transportation costs by 184%, further inflating food prices. Enugu’s agricultural sector, heavily reliant on yam, cassava, and rice production, suffered a 23% yield loss due to flooding between 2022 and 2023, forcing households to adopt cheaper but nutritionally deficient alternatives such as ultra-processed foods. Monthly incomes below ₦30,000 among low-income families led to a 41% reduction in protein intake and a 35% decline in vegetable consumption, correlating with a 28% rise in stunting among children under five.
Theoretical frameworks illustrate how food inflation diminishes purchasing power, compelling dietary compromises that hinder child development and reinforce intergenerational poverty cycles. In Enugu, stunting affects 52% of children under five exceeding the national average of 37% while wasting prevalence stands at 19%, linked to headline inflation of 33.95% in May 2024. Household coping mechanisms, including meal-skipping and child labor, further deteriorate nutritional outcomes, as evidenced by research indicating a 4.8-6.1% increase in wasting for every 10% rise in food prices.
Government interventions, such as the 2025 N774 Initiative targeting local nutrition control, remain underfunded at 0.5% of GDP an inadequate response to food inflation peaking at 35.41% in January 2024. Rural households in Enugu, constituting 62% of the state’s impoverished population, face transport costs for staple foods 91% above pre-crisis levels, deepening malnutrition risks. This study addresses critical gaps by examining the 2022-2025 socioeconomic trends shaping nutritional insecurity among Enugu’s low-income populations.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Food inflation in Nigeria has intensified significantly, rising from 23% in September 2022 to 40.53% by June 2024, with particularly severe consequences for low-income households in Enugu State. The erosion of purchasing power has resulted in a 35% reduction in real food expenditure, contributing to alarming increases in child malnutrition 28% in stunting and 19% in wasting among children under five. Rural families, who allocate approximately 64% of their budgets to food, now contend with transport costs for staples that are 91% higher than previous levels amidst a broader inflationary context of 33.95% as recorded in May 2024. These economic pressures have forced dietary shifts toward ultra-processed foods, exacerbating micronutrient deficiencies and impairing cognitive development in affected populations.
Households employ coping strategies such as meal skipping and reliance on child labor, which research indicates correlates with severe wasting rates increasing by 4.8 to 6.1% for every 10% rise in food prices. Meanwhile, underfunded social programs like the N774 initiative fail to adequately address the crisis, reaching only 14.8% of the most vulnerable groups and thereby reinforcing cycles of intergenerational poverty.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
General Objective To examine the impact of rising food inflation on child nutrition outcomes in low-income households in Enugu State from 2022 to 2025.
Specific Objectives
- To assess changes in household food expenditure and dietary diversity due to inflation.
- To evaluate the prevalence and severity of child malnutrition indicators.
- To identify coping strategies and their effects on nutritional status.
1.4 Research Questions
- How has food inflation altered household expenditure patterns and dietary diversity?
- What are the trends in child stunting, wasting, and underweight rates?
- Which coping mechanisms influence nutritional outcomes?
1.5 Research Hypotheses
H₀₁: Food inflation has no significant effect on household dietary diversity scores. H₀₂: Inflation shows no association with child malnutrition prevalence. H₀₃: Coping strategies have no impact on nutritional indicators.
1.6 Significance of the Study
This study provides Enugu State authorities with evidence on the relationship between inflation and nutrition, supporting targeted subsidies that could significantly reduce childhood stunting by 2027. The findings contribute to national policy development regarding cash transfer programs for vulnerable households, with potential savings in healthcare expenditures.
The research advances scholarly understanding of food security, particularly how inflation impacts child health outcomes. It offers valuable insights for public health researchers examining the effectiveness of various coping strategies among affected populations.
For low-income families, the study recommends interventions such as fortified staple foods and school meal programs, which have demonstrated improvements in dietary diversity and show promise in disrupting intergenerational poverty cycles.
1.7 Scope and Delimitation
Scope: Low-income households (<₦30,000/month) in Enugu urban/rural areas, 2022-2025 data on under-fives. Delimitation: Focuses on inflation effects; excludes non-food factors.
1.8 Definition of Key Terms
Rising Food Inflation: Annual increase 20% in staple prices.
Child Nutrition Outcomes: Stunting, wasting, underweight via WHO standards.
Low-Income Households: Monthly earnings ₦30,000.
Enugu State: Southeastern Nigeria’s study area.
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